A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the nation and caused chaos, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has something to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
