Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: positive announcements are released from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the proposed articles of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
