The Way This Strange Season Shattered the Typical NFL Coach of the Year Mould.

Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your team in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who orchestrated the biggest resurgence wins the award. However, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior coaching or merely the greatest surprise.

However the latest competition is fundamentally different. The list of contenders is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent conference champions falling away and longtime strugglers improving collectively. During an ordinary year, a coach leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected ballot could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors love QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's freed him. Given a proper ecosystem, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged performance. With Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than freelancing. It is an attack designed entirely in Johnson's image: a physical run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a creative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson came to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – overhauling the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning the QB into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of expectations he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the top candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a typical season!

The area where his case comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several victories worse off. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. Unlike Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of setup is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But Coen has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive plays and started hunting reliable ones. The coach refocused the offense around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his QB decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have ended the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still